When They Talk About Covid 19 and it’s Morbidity as Numbers….

They tend to skate over the human factors. Like who is it that is most likely to get the disease? Everyone might get the virus. They might get no symptoms or pretty mild flu-LIKE symptoms.

But so far the percentages of deaths at the world level are holding at under 5% of the confirmed cases group. Which is pretty awesome when you consider how varied the health systems are around the world. And pretty amazing considering this is a new beast that scientists have just barely discovered and have had to fly by the seat of their pants in treatment options.

So far, they’ve been trying a bunch of shit. Think like Jackson Pollock, throwing a bunch of paint at a sheet of paper and seeing what sticks.

But end of third month, they have a list now of stuff they have tried that has had success. At least to mitigate the symptoms. And trust me, they’re talking to each other. That will slow down the growth in morbidity numbers more than anything else. No matter what your risk is.

But let’s focus on which groups are most likely to suffer/perish:

• The frail are a significant group. And it is possible that everyone of them will drop, Unlikely, but possible. And their caregivers and the governors do have to protect them as if they all could die. So the care centers have cracked down on visitors. Families and agencies who tend to those in the community are trying to look out for the ones who are still on their own. That should reduce that morbidity impact number significantly. That and the fact that a lot of these frail have food, shelter and a place to self-isolate and wash their hands. They are now not the biggest worry, for getting it or for transmitting it.
• The disenfranchised are a significant problem area. They are by nature wanderers, With no reliable access to food, shelter or sanitary, hygiene resources.

Some places are trying to make these things available to as many as will take the help. But in a community that have at best temporary states of paranoia (drug or psychotic induced) that is going to be a hard sell. 100% compliance to any public health efforts is likely unachievable. Every one that does is a coup. But at least these people aren’t gathering in groups while they roam. So yes there is a fear for them, but they are a limited contagion vector now. They will more likely starve to death or succumb to the weather or be a victim of their addiction than get Covid 19.

• A major issue is going to be the prisons, shanty towns, barrios and refugee camps of the world. Where people have no choice but to gather, and have limited resources for hygiene and food, water, shelter, clothing. And they’ll be lucky if they can access an aspirin if they get a fever. Let alone a ventilator. This is the most likely population for a wildfire contagion. But other than aid workers and guards and their families who are near them, they will be pockets of contagion.
• In the daily traffic aspect, a lot of work spaces have closed, or gone to web-commuting where possible. Most people are willing to be distant (esp in urban centers) for the duration of the pandemic. They’re somewhat used to that, with things like colds and flus. They get the need for it.
  But there will always be people who don’t want to be distant or can’t be.

Of the groups that can’t be are essential services:

• like the first responders. (Police, fire, EMTs, nurses, doctors and miitary) They have food, water and shelter. They have hygiene resources. And if properly supplied with PPE they have a good chance of surviving virus-free.
• Like the utility workers and repair services (plumbing, electric, maintenance…) Who don’t have to be that physically near someone to do their job. Unlike the first responders. But they do have to enter premises that may not be that hygenic. And they may be closer than 3-6 feet with an inhabitant of the space. But their risk isn’t as high as first responders. And they can ask before they enter, whether of not the inhabitant has symptoms. They can refuse service, if it’s not an emergency.
• Like the public transportation workers. Taxis, buses, trains, planes. (Even though most of the planes are grounded atm, there are still some in flight.) Their risk isn’t as high as first responders either.
• In the exchange of goods and money, you can also count store clerks and bank tellers. But considering the distancing already done by their desks or counters, they aren’t that exposed. This isn’t the likeliest risk. Though gloves during the exchange of money should be adhered to.

So those are the civilian and essential service providers who need to be cared for, and given adequate PPE for their risk of exposure.

…

So when you see the numbers and look at the millions or thousands, depending on the source, consider your risk by which group you and your loved ones fall into. Those in your actual household/those you see regularly, being your primary chain of vectors.

Maybe that will help you relax a bit? Not enough to go to an orgy tonight though, I hope! Just enough to not be another Chicken Little. Because we really don’t need more of those. Enough have signed on already.
And if nothing else grabs you, remember that humanity is resilient
Just because you get the virus, even if you are at higher risk than others, it doesn’t mean you will be the one who dies. So take your day a breath at a time.

And wash your hands!!

…. tracking sites for the numbers.

(how many cases are in your pocket of the world now?)
ecdc
govt of Canada
Ontario
(I’m taking a breath in and out right now, because in my area, there are only 5 known cases )

the economic fall out?

Considering that most people already pay the govt six months of their annual income? And all the money they’re laying out now on economic incentives and protective measures? Yeah when we come out of this… expect higher taxes. (pouts, grinds teeth)

So that has been Ms P’s thinky thoughts while others have focused on whether a particular dungeon or munch was closed…

This is real, it is scary. But stop looking at the numbers and consider your actual risks here. Live according to them. We have enough Chicken Littles. All they do is encourage hoarding. Or worse.